← LabyrinthGames Brunei Regionals Tournament

Water Umbra GuardianTier 2

at LabyrinthGames Brunei Regionals Tournament

decks
8 (8.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
45 15-22-8
overall winrate
42.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6% avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
48.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1190 · median 1162 · range 1101–1367 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055 Q1 1152 Q3 1279 1571
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Suited 20.0% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 54.4% +2.5
Fire Suzaku 6.7% 6 1-3-2 33.3% 40.0% 45.9% -2.2
Fire Crux Lorraine 5.6% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.3% +1.7
Wind Seiryuu 5.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 39.8% -9.8
Wind Shadowstrike 5.6% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.5% -2.4
Wind Allies 4.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.1% +16.4
Fire Aggro 3.3% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 42.2% -5.8
Fire Crux Mage 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.8% -8.3
Fire Exia 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.4% -15.4
Water Allies 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.4% -13.7
Fire Slimes 2.2% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 57.0% +6.7
Slimes 2.2% 4 0-3-1 12.5% 31.2% 31.3% -12.0
Water Fractal 2.2% 0
Water Genbu 2.2% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 58.0% +7.7
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.2% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 52.5% +1.6
Fire Aetherwing 1.1% 0
Fire Astra Ranger 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.5% +13.5
Fire Lorraine 1.1% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.1% 0
Fire Polkhawk 1.1% 0
Fire Seiryuu 1.1% 0
Fire Umbra Ciel 1.1% 0
Fire Wind Vanitas 1.1% 0
Water Aetherwing 1.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.4% -14.0
Water Neos 1.1% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.6
Wind Astra Cleric 1.1% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.1% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.1% 0
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 54 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Song of Frost -1.00 0 1 0
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Restorative Slash +1.00 1 0 0
Confidant's Oath +1.00 1 0 0
Revitalizing Cleanse -1.00 0 1 0
Heavy Swing +1.00 1 0 0
Rivulet Adjutant +1.00 1 0 0
Grande Aiguille +1.00 1 0 0
Liminal Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Pristine Scourge +1.00 1 0 0
Strategem of Myriad Ice -1.00 0 1 0
Fracturize -1.00 0 1 0
Ombreux Chevalier -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +1.00 1 0 0
Cerulean Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Frostsworn Paladin -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit of Water -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Chalice of Blood -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Buried Grief +1.00 1 0 0
Carter, Synthetic Reaper -1.00 0 1 0
Vigil Rempart +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition -1.00 0 1 0
Overpowering Defense +1.00 1 0 0
Suffocating Miasma +1.00 1 0 0
Flowing Oubli +1.00 1 0 0
Dredging Streams -1.00 0 1 0
Primordial Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Fragmented Spirit of Water +1.00 1 0 0
Obsequious Blow +1.00 1 0 0
Vaporjet Shieldbearer -1.00 0 1 0
Brusque Neige +1.00 1 0 0
Reverse Affliction +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Paragon +1.00 1 0 0
Unbroken Mustang +1.00 1 0 0
Sablier Guard +1.00 1 0 0
Memento Pocketwatch +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Leporine Masque +1.00 1 0 0
Lamentation's Toll +1.00 1 0 0
Acquiescing Rejection -1.00 0 1 0
Umbra Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Mire Reparation +1.00 1 0 0
Storm of Thorns -1.00 0 1 0
Blinding Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Reprogram +1.00 1 0 0
Soutirer Vortex +1.00 1 0 0
Beguiling Coup +1.00 1 0 0
Grim Pastiche +1.00 1 0 0
Refracting Missile -1.00 0 1 0
Aquifer Seneschal +1.00 1 0 0
Nocturne's Oblivion +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/31952/archetypes/Water Umbra Guardian